02 février 2014 ~ 1 Commentaire

Welcome in 2014

Hello everyone,

And welcome to my personal blog where you will find my thoughts and personal studies on various aspects of the financial world. On this blog you will find every Sunday a press review, a financial analysis of various stocks and to finish a presentation of one of the quantitative models used in finance.

For my first week you will find in the next paragraphs a snapshot of the world after 2013. I will present you what I think is important to remember of the past few years and what will be the major issues of 2014. In the second part of my weekly review we will see some technical analysis.

2013 the healing year, 2014 the consolidation year

2013 has been characterized by the recovering activity in many countries, mainly in developed one. But this recovering has a cost. Indeed the recovering is the result of interventions of central banks trying to generate inflation. In the US the Tappering policy is in place since 2008 and each month the Fed injects more than 85 Mds $ in the US economy and therefore maintains low interest rates in order to encourage the economy. This policy has obvious positive effects among which a fast diminution of the unemployment and investments indocators in the green field, but the problem is the question of the end of the Tappering. This big “unknown in the equation” will be the main subject of the Fed 2014 monetary policy under the direction of the newcomer Janett Yallen who has freshly been nominated at the head of the Fed in the late 2013 (the first woman at this job). Despite the uncertainty of this policy over the longer term, two other central banks have taken the same decision. Firstly the BoE (Bank of England) has chosen to become more aggressive on its monetary policy but with a huge difference with the Fed : the BoE has numerical goals. Indeed while the Fed will choose when the Tappering policy will stop, the BoE will stop its policy when the unemployment of England will be under 7% (the last unemployment rate made a statement of 7.1% of unemployed which means that the volontarist policy of the BoE will stop soon). Second, the BoJ (Bank of Japan) has chosen an even more drastic way than the Fed. The BoJ injects about 7000 Mds Yen per month in the Japan economy The BoJ has a numerical goal : a 2% inflation.

la boj plus forte que la fed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 has also been the year of many elections. Among them we can find the Italian presidential election where Giorgio Napolano took over the Italian government (without being affiliated to any party), and the Iranian presidential election (Hassan Rohani won the election supported by the reformist party). The 22nd. september 2013 German elections brought Angela Merkel back to power but the results are not favorable enough to ensure the whole power to the freshly re-named chancellor: Ms. Merkel (CDU) has had to form a coalition with the SPD to run the country. Ms. Merkel has given the ministries of Economy, of Justice, of Health, and of the Economical Cooperation to the FDP but has kept control on European decisions thanks to the Ministry of Finance and the other major ones.

Internet Link : http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_d’%C3%A9lections_en_2013

In Europe the situation is better than before but is still far from perfect. Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Grece still suffer from the crisis. Indeed even if the situation is better the unemployment is very problematic (26.6% for Spain, 27% for Grece, 17.4% for Portugal and 12.2% for Italy). Moreover the debt didn’t drop down and the growth is not yet taking place. However the conjoncture improves itself with a better situation on the cost of labour, the deficit and balance sheet . 2014 will be one of the most important years for these countries but also for France to evaluate the capacity of these countries to face the terrible situation regarding debt and unemployment . At the same time Angela Merkel and Brussels will control the evolution of the situation.Berlin and Brussel will have to keep an eye on the evolution of the situation.

 

chomage record dans la zone euro

 

 

 

But the year 2013 ou 2014? should not only be the year of rebound it is also a year for diplomatic reshuffling. The Snowden case led to a media harassment of the USA, in the meantime America has experienced its first shutdown which symbolised the end of the Big Brother Era. At the same time the Obama administration is facing diverse problems with its electors. Moreover 2014 the shutdown problem will continue.

 

économie américaine

 

On the Asian countries side two main events have taken place. The first one is the election of Shinzo Abe in Japan with the promulgation of the Abenomics (Shinzo Abe economical program which is mainly based on the monetary policy of the BoJ). The new policy encountered very positive results with a 2.6% growth on the 3rd semester of 2013. But the problem of the ending of the exceptional monetary policy of the BoJ still remains. The second major event was Xi Jinping’s election in China. This new president will be in charge of the mutation of the second biggest world’s economy. Among the main problems Xi Jinping will have to face he will in particular have to find a solution to the growing debt of regions and cities in China.

In a nutshell, welcome in 2014

Une réponse à “Welcome in 2014”

  1. Excellente initiative! Vais te faire de la pub.


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